变分模态分解下融合时序InSAR沉降监测的HPO-LSTM预测模型

HPO-LSTM prediction model for integrating time-series InSAR settlement monitoring under variational mode decomposition

  • 摘要: InSAR技术是实现大范围矿区地表沉降分析的重要手段和方法,准确预测地表沉降对预防地质灾害具有重要意义。考虑到InSAR技术提取的矿区地表沉降数据存在较强的波动性和非线性,以及长短期时间记忆(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)网络模型的超参数难以确定的问题,本文提出一种变分模态分解(VMD)结合猎食者算法(Hunter-Prey Optimizer,HPO)优化LSTM的地表沉降预测模型,以某矿为研究对象,通过VMD算法将矿区沉降信息分解为多个模态分量,然后使用HPO-LSTM模型对这些模态分量进行预测,并与InSAR监测结果进行对比分析。结果表明:与VMD-BP和VMD-ELM模型相比,该方法的预测效果更好,平均绝对误差最少降低85.41%,均方根误差最少降低85.02%,平均绝对百分比误差最少降低87.05%,表明该方法具有更强的可靠性和可行性。

     

    Abstract: InSAR technology is an important means and method to realize the analysis of surface subsidence in large-scale mining areas, and the accurate prediction of surface subsidence is of great significance for the prevention of geological disasters. Considering the strong volatility and nonlinearity of the surface subsidence data extracted from the mining area by InSAR technology and the difficulty of determining the hyperparameters of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network model, this paper proposed a LSTM prediction model for surface subsidence optimized by the variational mode decomposition (VMD) and the hunter-prey algorithm (HPO). Taking a specific mine as the research object, the subsidence information of the mining area was decomposed into multiple modal components using the VMD algorithm. Subsequently, the HPO-LSTM model was employed to predict these modal components, and the results were compared with the InSAR monitoring data. The results showed that the HPO-LSTM model exhibited the best prediction effect. The average absolute error was reduced by at least 85.41%, the root-mean-square error was reduced by at least 85.02%, and the average absolute percentage error was reduced by at least 87.05% compared with the VMD-BP and VMD-ELM models, which indicated that the proposed method was of more reliability and feasibility.

     

/

返回文章
返回