中国铜产业链结构升级效果评价

Evaluation of the upgrading effect of the Chinese copper industrial chain structure

  • 摘要: 基于产业链视角研究供给侧改革前后铜产业结构升级情况,构建了反映上游采选业、中游冶炼业和下游压延加工业产业结构升级方向、速率和程度的测算模型,并利用2012-2019年数据进行了测算与对比分析。结果表明:①升级方向。供给侧改革后相较改革前,上游超前系数下降且均小于1,中游超前系数增加且均大于1,而下游超前系数略有增加且基本趋于1,说明中、下游超前发展程度较好。②升级速率。供给侧改革后相较改革前,铜产业矢量夹角值由2.72°下降到2.26°,呈现下降趋势,说明铜产业结构升级速率仍然比较缓慢。③升级程度。供给侧改革后相较改革前,上游产业结构升级高度值下降,而中游和下游升级高度值持续上升,说明升级程度由低级阶段向高级阶段演变,正朝着供给侧改革目标方向发展。研究结果丰富了产业结构升级理论,阐释了铜产业结构升级未来的重点方向,为铜产业政策制定和企业生产决策提供了经验证据。

     

    Abstract: Based on the perspective of the industrial chain, the upgrading of the copper industrial structure before and after the supply-side reform was studied to build a calculation model reflecting the upgrading direction, rate and degree of industrial structure of the upstream mining industry, the midstream smelting industry and downstream calendering industry. Meanwhile, the data from 2012 to 2019 were used for calculation and comparative analysis. The results show that compared with those before the reform, after the supply-side reform, the upstream advance coefficients decrease, all less than 1, and the midstream advance coefficients increase, all more than 1, while the downstream advance coefficients increase slightly, basically equal to 1, indicating that the advanced developments of midstream and downstream are better. The vector angle value of copper industry decreases from 2.72° to 2.26°, showing a downward trend, indicating that the upgrading rate of copper industrial structure is still relatively slow. The height value of upstream industrial structure upgrading drops, while that of the middle and downstream continued to rise, indicating that the upgrade degree has been evolving from the low-level stage to the advanced stage, developing towards the target of supply-side reform. The research results in this paper enrich the theory of industrial structure upgrading, explain the key direction of copper industrial structure upgrading in the future, and provide empirical evidence for copper industrial policy making and production decision-making of enterprises.

     

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