基于模糊频率比与熵指数的滑坡易发性评价——以崇义县为例

Evaluation of landslide susceptibility based on the fuzzy frequency ratio and entropy index: a case study of Chongyi county

  • 摘要: 为进一步优化基于频率比模型的滑坡易发性评价,构建了一种基于模糊频率比-熵指数的滑坡易发性评价模型。该模型将模糊信息分配的基本原理及方法引入频率比的计算中,优化了基于滑坡易发性影响因子分级的滑坡信息量统计,提出了模糊频率比的计算方法。在此基础上,建立了模糊频率比与熵指数相结合的滑坡易发性评价模型。以崇义县为例,基于对地质环境和滑坡空间分布特征的系统分析,提取了11个滑坡评价影响因子,构建了滑坡易发性评价指标体系。应用结果表明,与单一的频率比、频率比-熵指数两种模型相比,预测精度可分别提高7.5%和3.6%,高和极高易发区的滑坡频率占比达85.98%,预测成功率曲线的AUC值达0.863 7,均优于未进行频率比模糊优化的评价模型,表明该模型是一种有效且可靠的滑坡易发性评价模型。

     

    Abstract: To further optimize landslide susceptibility evaluation based on the frequency ratio model, a landslide susceptibility evaluation model based on the fuzzy frequency ratio-entropy index was constructed. The basic principle and method of fuzzy information distribution were applied to the calculation of the frequency ratio. This method optimized the statistics of landslide information based on the classification of landslide susceptibility influencing factors and put forward the calculation method of the fuzzy frequency ratio. On this basis, a landslide susceptibility evaluation model combining the fuzzy frequency ratio and entropy index was established. Taking Chongyi county as a case study, and based on the systematic analysis of the geological environment and spatial distribution characteristics of landslides, 11 landslide evaluation factors were extracted, and the landslide susceptibility evaluation index system was constructed. The application results showed that the prediction accuracy of this model was 7.5% higher than that of the single model and 3.6% higher than that of the frequency ratio-entropy index model. The proportion of landslide frequency in high and extremely high-prone areas could reach 85.98%. The AUC value of the predicted success curve reached 0.8637. All this implied that the evaluation model without fuzzy frequency ratio optimization was better, indicating that it was an effective and reliable landslide-prone evaluation model.

     

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