Abstract: Rare earth is an important strategic reserve resource in China. Effective industrial policies will have an important impact on the upgrading of rare earth industrial structure and sustainable development. In this paper, the two rare earth industrial policies issued in 2006 and 2012 were sorted out, and the GM(1, 1) forecasting model was established, which respectively predicted the rare earth mineral output and calculated the policy effect value. The effect of rare earth industrial policy was quantitatively evaluated by the event study method. The study found that the output of rare earth ore had been effectively controlled since the implementation of the total mining control policy in 2006, and the policy effect was obvious. Through the comparative analysis of the policy effect values of different types of ion-adsorption rare earth, mixed rare earths and fluorocarbon-cerium, it showed that the 2012 mandatory production planning policy had more significant effect on the output control of ion-adsorption rare earth mineral products. Therefore, policy implementation has played a positive role in the orderly exploitation and production of rare earth resources.