边坡滑坡概率求解优化分析

Solve optimization analysis of landslide probability

  • 摘要: 应用逻辑回归模型结合确定性系数求解边坡滑坡概率,分析边坡状态取值不同,求解所得的滑坡概率不同,得出边坡状态取值绝对值的增加,所得滑坡概率与样本输入值越吻合,但作为预测存在误差的可能性越大,在实际应用过程中,考虑实际需要对边坡状态取值进行优化.采用逻辑回归模型和确定性系数,结合30个样本边坡实例,应用SPSS软件进行回归分析,求解不同边坡状态取值时的滑坡概率.将求解不同边坡状态取值时的滑坡概率结果结合安全系数进行分析比较,得出边坡状态取值绝对值越大,则所得滑坡概率越向滑坡概率0.00 %和100.00 %两极靠近,同时所得滑坡概率取值区间越小,说明所得滑坡概率与样本输入值越吻合,但用于预测目标边坡的滑坡概率,则存在误差的可能性越大,结合实例边坡情况,选择边坡状态最优取值绝对值为4.

     

    Abstract: The logic regression model combining deterministic coefficient to solve the probability of landslide, the analysis of the slope state values are different, solving the probability of landslide is obtained, draw a state of absolute values of the slope increases, the probability of landslide is obtained with the sample input values is consistent, but as a forecast is, the greater the chance of error, in the process of practical application, considering the actual need to optimize the slope state values. Using logistic regression models and deterministic coefficient, with 30 samples slope as an example, the application of SPSS software for regression analysis, to solve the state values of different slope landslide probability. Will solve state values of different slope landslide probability results is analyzed by combining with safety factor, it is concluded that the state value of absolute value, the greater the slope, the probability of landslide is 0.00% and 100.00% to the landslide probability near the poles, and the probability of landslide is the smaller agv, shows that the landslide probability and sample input values is consistent, but used to predict the target of the slope landslide probability, there is the possibility of error, the greater the slope with samples, select the optimal value of absolute value of slope state of 4.

     

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